[SMM Analysis] Review and Prospect of Zinc Price what is the trend of Zinc Price in 2020?

SMM1, March 3:

The first phase of zinc prices in 2019: rising

At the end of the first quarter, with the advent of the peak consumption season, the removal of inventory at home and abroad is obvious, coupled with the introduction of relevant stimulus policies by the domestic government, market liquidity has become loose and confidence has been restored to a certain extent, which led to a stronger performance of internal and external zinc prices in the first quarter.

TC high shock, smelting high profits, low inventory high rising water.

Phase II of Zinc prices in 2019: decline

Global mine growth 1-2% + domestic zinc ingot growth 7-8% + overseas ingot production reduction 1%

The bottleneck of the refinery was quickly broken down by profits, and the supply of zinc ingots increased.

Consumption began to show seasonal weakness in June

Trade frictions between China and the United States and Europe, pessimistic sentiment in the market has further contributed to the weak performance of zinc prices

Phase III of Zinc prices in 2019: shocks

The going to the warehouse slows down, and the low inventory structure changes from strong to weak.

The support of overseas back structure is from strong to weak

Vedanta's Skorpion smelter closed in April

Low shock of zinc price under the action of multi-empty message

Zinc price forecast in 2020: pressure on the supply side increases, zinc price is unspeakably optimistic

From January to February, zinc prices are pessimistic mainly because the pressure on supply is larger than in 2019, smelters continue to break through capacity bottlenecks driven by profits, and on consumption, enterprises in the lower reaches of the Spring Festival basically rest one after another, and it is expected that the accumulation range of the Spring Festival is relatively large, so the price is still weak.